click map to enlarge |
Navigational Warnings have appeared that point to a Russian launch from Plesetsk between May 16-26. The direction of launch as indicated by the hazard zones from the Navigational Warnings (see maps above and below), points to launch into a ~97.75 degree inclined Sun-synchronous orbit. This, in turn, points to an IMINT mission, i.e. an optical reconnaissance satellite.
There are two options: another BARS M satellite (BARS M6), or something new.
There are indications of the latter. Compared to previous BARS M
launches, in addition to hazard zones near the Kola peninsula and Svalbard, there is an extra deorbit zone, in the NE Pacific some 1100 km
out of the coast of California. As Bart Hendrickx pointed out, this
might indicate the addition of a Fregat upper stage to a Soyuz 2 rocket,
something not seen before for launches into SSO from Plesetsk.
Bart Hendrickx thinks it might perhaps concern a launch of three small Razbeg optical reconnaissance satellites.
click map to enlarge |
Launch window as indicated by the Navigational Warnings is May 16-26, 20:00-23:00 UTC daily. These are the relevant Navigational Warnings (which are plotted in the maps above):
NAVAREA XX 062/24
BARENTS SEA.
CHART RUS 10100.
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 2000 TO 2300 UTC
DAILY 16 TO 26 MAY NAVIGATION
PROHIBITED IN TERRITORIAL WATERS
DANGEROUS OUTSIDE IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
70-56-00N 032-04-58E, 70-10-00N 033-40-00E,
69-54-00N 032-40-00E, 70-08-00N 032-04-58E,
70-15-00N 031-50-00E, 70-30-07N 031-50-00E,
70-36-22N 031-43-18E.
111952Z MAY 24
HYDROARC 75/24(42,43).
BARENTS SEA.
SVALBARD.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
2000Z TO 2300Z DAILY 16 THRU 26 MAY
IN AREA BOUND BY
76-30.00N 022-00.00E, 75-20.00N 024-40.00E,
74-50.00N 021-40.00E, 75-50.00N 018-40.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 270001Z MAY 24.
120900Z MAY 24
NAVAREA XII 330/24(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
2000Z TO 2300Z DAILY 16 THRU 26 MAY
IN AREA BOUND BY
29-21.00N 126-46.00W, 29-50.00N 128-52.00W,
24-22.00N 130-24.00W, 23-53.00N 128-15.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 270001Z MAY 24.
Assuming an orbital altitude at ~500 km, this is an approximate orbit guess for launch at the start of the window (the orbital inlcination could be off by a few tenths of a degree, and orbital altitude is a guess only):
Russian IMINT for launch on 16 May 2024 20:00:00 UTC
1 70000U 24999A 24137.83333333 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 09
2 70000 097.7500 232.3966 0010908 075.7763 325.4205 15.22766913 04